If you only accelerated once and road the entire time on a level surface, the 12t will get hotter and have lower range. The more times you start and stop (ignoring battery regen) the more it will move in the other direction (16t hotter and lower range). The more hills and steeper they are, the more the 12t starts to win out as well.
Now if your motors and drive train were 100% efficient there would be no difference.
Eddy currents are produced exponentially. If the motor gets to the speed where they start to go way up (roughly 8500rpm with a common 40-50mm motor) it can become a bigger source of heat than the current in the wire, but up to that point the speed can be transformed to torque and a benefit. The more magnets or bigger the motor the lower the speed it will occur.
Idk, I haven’t had belt slip on other ratios except the 15:40 either, I might try a longer belt sometime soon, my idler is at its almost max open position